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Prediction of short term re-exacerbation in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Authors Liu D, Peng SH, Zhang J, Bai SH, Liu HX, Qu JM

Received 23 February 2015

Accepted for publication 28 April 2015

Published 2 July 2015 Volume 2015:10(1) Pages 1265—1273

DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/COPD.S83378

Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single-blind

Peer reviewer comments 5

Editor who approved publication: Dr Richard Russell

Dong Liu,1 Shao-Hua Peng,2,3 Jing Zhang,2 Si-Hong Bai,2,4 Hai-Xia Liu,1 Jie-Ming Qu1,5

1Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Huadong Hospital, 2Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, 3Shaowu Municipal Hospital, Fujian, 4The People’s Hospital of Song County, Henan Province, 5Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University, School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China


Background: The objective of the study is to develop a scoring system for predicting a 90-day re-exacerbation in hospitalized patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).
Methods: A total of 176 consecutive hospitalized patients with AECOPD were included. The sociodemographic characteristics, status before acute exacerbation (AE), presentations of and treatment for the current AE, and the re-exacerbation in 90 days after discharge from hospital were collected.
Results: The re-exacerbation rate in 90 days was 48.9% (86 out of 176). It was associated with the degree of lung function impairment (Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] grades), frequency of AE in the previous year, and parameters of the current AE, including pleural effusion, use of accessory respiratory muscles, inhaled long-acting β-2-agonists, inhaled corticosteroids, controlled oxygen therapy, noninvasive mechanical ventilation, and length of hospital stay, but was not associated with body mass index, modified Medical Research Council scale, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test. A subgroup of ten variables was selected and developed into the re-exacerbation index scoring system (age grades, GOLD grades, AE times in the previous year, pleural effusion, use of accessory respiratory muscles, noninvasive mechanical ventilation, controlled oxygen therapy, inhaled long-acting β-2-agonists and inhaled corticosteroids, and length of hospital stay). The re-exacerbation index showed good discrimination for re-exacerbation, with a C-statistic of 0.750 (P<0.001).
Conclusion: A comprehensive assessment integrating parameters of stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, clinical presentations at exacerbation, and treatment showed a strong predictive capacity for short-term outcome in patients with AECOPD. Further studies are required to verify these findings.

Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, acute exacerbation, treatment, re-exacerbation

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