Predicting high risk of exacerbations in bronchiectasis: the E-FACED score
Authors Martinez-Garcia MA, Athanazio RA, GirĂłn R, MĂˇiz-Carro L, de la Rosa D, Olveira C, de Gracia J, Vendrell M, Prados-SĂˇnchez C, Gramblicka G, Corso Pereira M, Lundgren FL, Fernandes de Figuereido M, Arancibia F, Rached SZ
Received 9 September 2016
Accepted for publication 9 November 2016
Published 18 January 2017 Volume 2017:12 Pages 275—284
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single-blind
Peer reviewers approved by Professor Hsiao-Chi Chuang
Peer reviewer comments 3
Editor who approved publication: Dr Richard Russell
Martinez-Garcia MA,1,2 Athanazio RA,3 Girón R,4 Máiz-Carro L,5 de la Rosa D,6 Olveira C,7 de Gracia J,2,8 Vendrell M,9 Prados-Sánchez C,10 Gramblicka G,11 Corso Pereira M,12 Lundgren FL,13 Fernandes De Figueiredo M,14 Arancibia F,15 Rached SZ3
1Pulmonary Service, Polytechnic and University La Fe Hospital, Valencia, Spain; 2CIBERes, CIBER de Enfermedades Respiratorias. Madrid. Spain; 3Pulmonary Division, Heart Institute (Incor), Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo; 4Pneumology Service, Hospital La Princesa, 5Pneumology Service, Hospital Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, 6Pneumology Unit, Hospital Plató, Barcelona, 7Pneumology, Málaga Regional University Hospital, Instituto de Biomedicina de Málaga (IBIMA), Málaga University, Spain; 8Pneumology Service, Hospital Vall d’Hebron, Barcelona, 9Bronchiectasis Group IDIBGI, Dr. Trueta University Hospital. UdG. Ciberes CB06/06/0030, 10Unidad de Fibrosis Quística y Bronquiectasias. Hospital Universitario La Paz. Madrid. Spain; 11Pneumology Service, Hospital del Tórax Dr A Cetrángolo, Buenos Aires, Argentina; 12Pneumology Service, Universidade Estadual de Campinas UNICAMP, Sao Paulo, 13Pneumology Service, Hospital Octávio de Freitas, Recife, 14Pneumology Service, Hospital de Messejana, Fortaleza, Brazil; 15Pneumology Service, Instituto Nacional del Tórax, Santiago de Chile, Chile
Background: Although the FACED score has demonstrated a great prognostic capacity in bronchiectasis, it does not include the number or severity of exacerbations as a separate variable, which is important in the natural history of these patients.
Objective: Construction and external validation of a new index, the E-FACED, to evaluate the predictive capacity of exacerbations and mortality.
Methods: The new score was constructed on the basis of the complete cohort for the construction of the original FACED score, while the external validation was undertaken with six cohorts from three countries (Brazil, Argentina, and Chile). The main outcome was the number of annual exacerbations/hospitalizations, with all-cause and respiratory-related deaths as the secondary outcomes. A statistical evaluation comprised the relative weight and ideal cut-off point for the number or severity of the exacerbations and was incorporated into the FACED score (E-FACED). The results obtained after the application of FACED and E-FACED were compared in both the cohorts.
Results: A total of 1,470 patients with bronchiectasis (819 from the construction cohorts and 651 from the external validation cohorts) were followed up for 5 years after diagnosis. The best cut-off point was at least two exacerbations in the previous year (two additional points), meaning that the E-FACED has nine points of growing severity. E-FACED presented an excellent prognostic capacity for exacerbations (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for at least two exacerbations in 1 year and 0.87 for at least one hospitalization in 1 year) that was statistically better than that of the FACED score (0.72 and 0.78, P<0.05, respectively). The predictive capacities for all-cause and respiratory mortality were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, with both being similar to those of the FACED.
Conclusion: E-FACED score significantly increases the FACED capacity to predict future yearly exacerbations while maintaining the score’s simplicity and prognostic capacity for death.
Keywords: FACED score, E-FACED score, mortality, bronchiectasis, exacerbations
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