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Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

Authors Soyiri I, Reidpath D

Received 21 February 2012

Accepted for publication 10 March 2012

Published 8 May 2012 Volume 2012:5 Pages 381—389

DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S31079

Review by Single-blind

Peer reviewer comments 2

Ireneous N Soyiri1,2, Daniel D Reidpath1

1Global Public Health, JCSMHS, MONASH University, Selangor, Malaysia; 2School of Public Health, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra, Ghana

Abstract: Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation.

Keywords: health forecast, health data, electronic health records, accuracy, cross validation, method, strengths and limitations

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