Systemic inflammatory response syndrome and model for end-stage liver disease score accurately predict the in-hospital mortality of black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis at initial hospitalization: a retrospective cohort study
Received 28 April 2017
Accepted for publication 6 December 2017
Published 9 April 2018 Volume 2018:11 Pages 143—152
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single-blind
Peer reviewers approved by Dr Colin Mak
Peer reviewer comments 2
Editor who approved publication: Professor Andreas M Kaiser
Alassan Kouamé Mahassadi,1 Justine Laure Konang Nguieguia,1 Henriette Ya Kissi,1 Anthony Afum-Adjei Awuah,2 Aboubacar Demba Bangoura,1 Stanislas Adjeka Doffou,1 Alain Koffi Attia1
1Medicine and Hepatogastroenterology Unit, Centre Hospitalier et Universitaire de Yopougon, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire; 2Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine, Kumasi, Ghana
Background: Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Prediction of mortality at initial hospitalization is unknown in black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis.
Aim: This study aimed to look at the role of MELD score and SIRS as the predictors of morbidity and mortality at initial hospitalization.
Patients and methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we enrolled 159 patients with cirrhosis (median age: 49 years, 70.4% males). The role of Child–Pugh–Turcotte (CPT) score, MELD score, and SIRS on mortality was determined by the Kaplan–Meier method, and the prognosis factors were assessed with Cox regression model.
Results: At initial hospitalization, 74.2%, 20.1%, and 37.7% of the patients with cirrhosis showed the presence of ascites, hepatorenal syndrome, and esophageal varices, respectively. During the in-hospital follow-up, 40 (25.2%) patients died. The overall incidence of mortality was found to be 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.2–4.1] per 100 person-days. Survival probabilities were found to be high in case of patients who were SIRS negative (log-rank test= 4.51, p=0.03) and in case of patients with MELD score ≤16 (log-rank test=7.26, p=0.01) compared to the patients who were SIRS positive and those with MELD score >16. Only SIRS (hazard ratio (HR)=3.02, [95% CI: 1.4–7.4], p=0.01) and MELD score >16 (HR=2.2, [95% CI: 1.1–4.3], p=0.02) were independent predictors of mortality in multivariate analysis except CPT, which was not relevant in our study. Patients with MELD score >16 experienced hepatorenal syndrome (p=0.002) and encephalopathy (p=0.001) more frequently than that of patients with MELD score ≤16. SIRS was not useful in predicting complications.
Conclusion: MELD score and SIRS can be used as tools for the prediction of mortality in black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis.
Keywords: MELD, SIRS, cirrhosis, mortality, Africa
This work is published and licensed by Dove Medical Press Limited. The full terms of this license are available at https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php and incorporate the Creative Commons Attribution - Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License. By accessing the work you hereby accept the Terms. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed. For permission for commercial use of this work, please see paragraphs 4.2 and 5 of our Terms.Download Article [PDF] View Full Text [HTML][Machine readable]