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Predicting Lifetime Transition Risk of Severe Visual Field Defects Using Monte Carlo Simulation in Japanese Patients with Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma

Authors Nitta K, Tachibana G, Wajima R, Inoue S, Ohigashi T, Otsuka N, Kurashima H, Santo K, Hashimoto M, Shibahara H, Hirukawa M, Sugiyama K

Received 29 January 2020

Accepted for publication 28 May 2020

Published 10 July 2020 Volume 2020:14 Pages 1967—1978

DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/OPTH.S247618

Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single-blind

Peer reviewer comments 2

Editor who approved publication: Dr Scott Fraser


Koji Nitta,1,2 Gaku Tachibana,1,2 Ryotaro Wajima,1,2 Sachie Inoue,3 Tatsuya Ohigashi,4 Naomi Otsuka,4 Hiroaki Kurashima,4 Kazunori Santo,4 Masayo Hashimoto,4 Hidetoshi Shibahara,3 Mai Hirukawa,3 Kazuhisa Sugiyama2

1Department of Ophthalmology, Fukui-Ken Saiseikai Hospital, Fukui, Japan; 2Department of Ophthalmology, Kanazawa University Graduate School of Medical Science, Kanazawa, Japan; 3CRECON Medical Assessment Inc., Tokyo, Japan; 4Japan Medical Affairs Group, Santen Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Osaka, Japan

Correspondence: Koji Nitta Email nitta.koji7001@fukui.saiseikai.or.jp

Purpose: To maintain visual fields and quality of life over a lifetime, medical practice must be conducted taking into consideration not only visual field progression but also future visual field changes that occur over the patients’ expected lifespan. The purpose of this study is to investigate the feasibility of establishing a model that predicts prognosis, estimating the proportion of glaucoma patients with severe visual field defects.
Patients and Methods: The data of 191 patients with primary open-angle glaucoma, with a predominance of normal-tension glaucoma, were used for this study. The model was developed based on patients’ backgrounds and risk factors, using Monte Carlo simulation. A “severe visual field defect” was defined as ≤-20 dB. The mean deviation (MD) value for 10,000 virtual patients in each simulation pattern (144 patterns) was calculated using a predictive formula to estimate the MD slope, and the effects of risk factors and intraocular pressure (IOP) reduction on the proportion of patients with severe visual field defects were evaluated.
Results: Younger age, later-stage disease, more severe glaucomatous structural abnormalities and the presence of disc hemorrhage were associated with an increase in the progression rate of patients with severe visual field defects. Conversely, lower IOP was associated with a decrease in this rate.
Conclusion: Combining regression analysis with Monte Carlo simulation could be a useful method for developing predictive models of prognosis in glaucoma patients.

Keywords: glaucoma, epidemiology, prognosis, risk factors, simulation

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