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Development and validation of a prognostic score predicting recurrence in resected combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma

Authors Tian MX, Luo LP, Liu WR, Deng W, Yin JC, Jin L, Jiang XF, Zhou YF, Qu WF, Tang Z, Wang H, Tao CY, Fang Y, Qiu SJ, Zhou J, Liu JF, Fan J, Shi YH

Received 26 November 2018

Accepted for publication 19 March 2019

Published 5 June 2019 Volume 2019:11 Pages 5187—5195

DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/CMAR.S195964

Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single-blind

Peer reviewers approved by Dr Andrew Yee

Peer reviewer comments 2

Editor who approved publication: Dr Chien-Feng Li


Meng-Xin Tian,1,2,* Liu-Ping Luo,3,4,* Wei-Ren Liu,1,2,* Wei Deng,5 Jia-Cheng Yin,1,2 Lei Jin,1,2 Xi-Fei Jiang,1,2 Yu-Fu Zhou,1,2 Wei-Feng Qu,1,2 Zheng Tang,1,2 Han Wang,1,2 Chen-Yang Tao,1,2 Yuan Fang,1,2 Shuang-Jian Qiu,1,2 Jian Zhou,1–2,6 Jing-Feng Liu,3,4 Jia Fan,1–2,6 Ying-Hong Shi1,2

1Department of Liver Surgery, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 2Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion of Ministry of Education, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China; 4The United Innovation of Mengchao Hepatobiliary Technology Key Laboratory of Fujian Province, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Health Statistics and Social Medicine, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, People‘s Republic of China; 6Institutes of Biomedical Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, People‘s Republic of China

*These authors contributed equally to this work

Purpose: To develop and validate a decision aid to help make individualized estimates of tumor recurrence for patients with resected combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (CHC).
Patients and methods: Risk factors of recurrence were identified in the derivation cohort of 208 patients who underwent liver resection between 1995 and 2014 at Zhongshan Hospital to develop a prediction score. The model was subsequently validated in an external cohort of 101 CHC patients using the C concordance statistic and net reclassification index (NRI).
Results: On multivariate analysis, five independent predictors associated with tumor recurrence were identified, including sex, γ-glutamyl transferase, macrovascular invasion, hilar lymphoid metastasis and adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization. The prediction score was constructed using these 5 variables, with scores ranging from 0 to 5. A patient with a score of 0 had a predicted 1- and 5-year recurrence risk of 11.1% and 22.2%, respectively. In the validation cohort, the NRIs of prediction score vs American Joint Committee on Cancer 7th, TNM staging system at 1-year and 5-year were 0.185 (95% CI, 0.090–0.279, P<0.001) and 0.425 (95% CI, 0.044–0.806, P=0.03), respectively.
Conclusion: Our developed and validated prediction score might be a simple and reliable method in postoperative CHC patients and help clinicians identify candidates who may benefit from future adjuvant therapies.

Keywords: combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma, recurrence prediction, prognosis, liver resection


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