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A two gene-based risk score predicts alcoholic cirrhosis development in males with at-risk alcohol consumption

Authors Mancina RM, Ferri F, Farcomeni A, Molinaro A, Maffongelli A, Mischitelli M, Poli E, Parlati L, Burza MA, De Santis A, Attilia F, Rotondo C, Rando MM, Attilia ML, Ceccanti M, Ginanni Corradini S

Received 18 September 2018

Accepted for publication 31 October 2018

Published 10 January 2019 Volume 2019:12 Pages 1—10


Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single anonymous peer review

Peer reviewer comments 2

Editor who approved publication: Prof. Dr. Martin H. Maurer

Rosellina Margherita Mancina,1,* Flaminia Ferri,2,* Alessio Farcomeni,3 Antonio Molinaro,1 Angela Maffongelli,4 Monica Mischitelli,2 Edoardo Poli,2 Lucia Parlati,5 Maria Antonella Burza,6 Adriano De Santis,2 Fabio Attilia,2 Claudia Rotondo,2 Maria Margherita Rando,2 Maria Luisa Attilia,2 Mauro Ceccanti,2 Stefano Ginanni Corradini2

1Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, The Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Wallenberg Laboratory, Göteborg, Sweden; 2Department of Translational and Precision Medicine, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy; 3Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy; 4Department of General Surgery, Urgency and Organ Transplantation, University Hospital “Paolo Giaccone”, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy; 5Hepatology Department, Université Paris Descartes, Cochin Hospital, APHP, Paris, France; 6Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden

*These authors contributed equally to this work

Background: Alcoholic cirrhosis represents 1% of all cause-of-deaths worldwide. Its incidence is higher in males and results from the combination of environmental and genetic factors. Among all the genetic determinants of alcoholic cirrhosis, the patatin-like phospholipase domain protein 3 (PNPLA3) rs738409 represents the most widely validated determinant. Recent cross-sectional studies on alcohol abusers identified transmembrane-6 superfamily member 2 (TM6SF2) rs58542926, membrane bound O-acyltransferase domain containing 7 (MBOAT7) rs641738, and cluster of differentiation 14 (CD14) rs2569190 as new genetic risk factors for alcoholic cirrhosis. We aimed to develop a gene-based risk score to predict the incidence of alcoholic cirrhosis in males with at-risk alcohol consumption.
Materials and methods: A total of 416 male at-risk alcohol drinkers were retrospectively examined. The association between alcoholic cirrhosis incidence and PNPLA3, CD14, TM6SF2, and MBOAT7 variants was tested. Age at onset of at-risk alcohol consumption, age, and body mass index (BMI) were included as covariates to determine the prediction score for alcoholic cirrhosis incidence by evaluating time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves.
Results: We found that PNPLA3, CD14, and TM6SF2 were associated with alcoholic cirrhosis prevalence. PNPLA3 and CD14 were also associated with its incidence. The best predictive score formula was (age at onset of at-risk alcohol consumption × 0.1) + (number of CD14 allele T) + (number of PNPLA3 allele M) + (BMI × 0.1). A threshold of 7.27 was identified as cutoff for the predictive risk of alcoholic cirrhosis development in 36 years from the onset of at-risk alcohol consumption with 70.1% sensitivity and 78.7% specificity.
Conclusion: We developed the first score for alcoholic cirrhosis prediction that combines clinical and genetic factors.

Keywords: alcoholic cirrhosis, PNPLA3, CD14, predictive score

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