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A nomogram to predict overall survival for biliary tract cancer

Authors Song W, Zhu Z, Wu Q, Lv C, Wang Y, Chen L, Miao D

Received 21 January 2018

Accepted for publication 20 April 2018

Published 14 June 2018 Volume 2018:10 Pages 1535—1541

DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/CMAR.S163291

Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single anonymous peer review

Peer reviewer comments 2

Editor who approved publication: Dr Leylah Drusbosky


Wei Song,* Zhi-gang Zhu,* Qiong Wu, Chang-guang Lv, Yong-gang Wang, Lei Chen, Dong-liu Miao

Department of Intervention and Vascular Surgery, The Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Suzhou Cancer Medical Center, Suzhou, China

*These authors contributed equally to this work

Background: The aim of the study was to develop and validate a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in biliary tract cancer (BTC).
Patients and methods:
Patients diagnosed with BTC between 2004 and 2014 were selected for the study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. All patients were randomly allocated to 2 sets, the training set (n = 8,869) and the validation set (n = 8,766), for the purposes of validation. The prognostic effects of each variable were examined using univariate and multivariate analyses. Cox regression models and a nomogram were developed based on significant prognostic factors. The predictive and discriminatory capacity of the nomogram was evaluated by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots.
Results:
Data of 17,635 patients with BTC were collected from the SEER database. Age; race; tumor site; tumor grade; T, N, and M stage; marital status; and therapy were associated with survival in the multivariate models. All these factors were integrated to construct the nomogram. The nomogram for predicting OS displayed better discrimination power than the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage system 6th edition in the training set and validation set. The calibration curve indicated that the nomogram was able to accurately predict 3- and 5-year OS.
Conclusion: This predictive model has the potential to provide an individualized risk estimate of survival in patients with BTC.

Keywords: nomogram, biliary tract cancer, SEER, prognosis

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