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Rising trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in 2000–2014

Authors Wu W, He XK, Yang L, Wang Q, Bian X, Ye J, Li Y, Li L

Received 21 December 2017

Accepted for publication 5 April 2018

Published 9 July 2018 Volume 2018:10 Pages 789—797


Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single anonymous peer review

Peer reviewer comments 3

Editor who approved publication: Professor Vera Ehrenstein

Wenrui Wu,1,2,* Xingkang He,3,4,* Liya Yang,1,2 Qing Wang,1,2 Xiaoyuan Bian,1,2 Jianzhong Ye,1,2 Yating Li,1,2 Lanjuan Li1,2

1State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; 2Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Hangzhou, China; 3Department of Gastroenterology, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University Medical School, Hangzhou, China; 4Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden

*These authors contributed equally to this work

Background: The morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer vary considerably around the world. The aim of this study was to characterize and evaluate recent changes in incidence and incidence-based mortality in the USA.
Methods: Incidence and incidence-based mortality data were based on the 18 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries through SEER*Stat software. We adopted joinpoint regression to analyze the temporal trends stratified by age, gender, ethnicity, stage, tumor site, and size.
Results: Based on 18 SEER data sets, the age-adjusted incidence of pancreatic cancer increased from 11.85/100,000 in 2000 to 14.70/100,000 in 2014, increasing by an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 1.6 (95% CI 1.5–1.8, p<0.05). The incidence-based mortality also increased, from 9.96/100,000 in 2001 to 12.96/100,000 in 2014, increasing by an AAPC of 1.9 (95% CI 1.3–2.5, p<0.05). However, we observed a deceleration in mortality since 2005, with the annual percentage change decreasing from 4.1 (2001–2005) to 1.0 (2005–2014). These increasing trends in pancreatic cancer were observed in most subgroups (stratified by age, gender, ethnicity, stage, tumor site, and size).
Conclusion: The incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in the USA have increased significantly since 2000, highlighting the need for increased preventive, screening, and surveillance efforts.

Keywords: epidemiology, pancreatic cancer, incidence, mortality, trend, SEER

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