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Nomograms for estimating survival in patients with papillary thyroid cancer after surgery

Authors Liu G, Liu Q, Sun SR

Received 13 November 2018

Accepted for publication 19 February 2019

Published 24 April 2019 Volume 2019:11 Pages 3535—3544

DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/CMAR.S194366

Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single-blind

Peer reviewers approved by Dr Colin Mak

Peer reviewer comments 2

Editor who approved publication: Dr Chien-Feng Li


Gang Liu,1 Qin Liu,2 Sheng-Rong Sun1

1Department of Breast and Thyroid Surgery, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, China; 2Department of Breast Surgery, Thyroid Surgery, Huangshi Central Hospital of Edong Healthcare Group, Hubei Polytechnic University, Huangshi, Hubei, 435000, China

Background: The aim of this study was to develop and validate nomograms to predict the survival in patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC).
Patients and methods: Adult patients who were surgically treated for PTC were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program (2004–2013). A multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards regression was performed, and nomograms for predicting 10-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were constructed. The discrimination and calibration plots were used to measure the accuracy of the nomograms.
Results: The records of 63,219 patients with PTC were retrospectively analyzed. Nine independent factors including age, race, sex, marital status, tumor size, extrathyroidal extension, radioactive iodine, T stage, and M stage were assembled into the OS nomogram. A nomogram predicting CSS was constructed based on eight factors (age, sex, marital status, tumor size, extrathyroidal extension, T stage, N stage, and M stage). With respect to the training set, the nomograms displayed improved discrimination power compared to the TNM staging system (6th edition) in both sets. The calibration curve for the probability of survival showed agreement between the predictive nomograms and the actual observation.
Conclusion: We have successfully developed prognostic nomograms to predict OS and CSS for PTC with excellent discrimination and calibration.

Keywords: papillary thyroid cancer, nomogram, SEER, prognosis

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