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Estimating the Prevalence and Mortality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the USA, the UK, Russia, and India

Authors Wang Y, Xu C, Yao S, Zhao Y, Li Y, Wang L, Zhao X

Received 30 May 2020

Accepted for publication 12 August 2020

Published 29 September 2020 Volume 2020:13 Pages 3335—3350

DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/IDR.S265292

Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single anonymous peer review

Peer reviewer comments 4

Editor who approved publication: Professor Suresh Antony


Yongbin Wang,1,* Chunjie Xu,2,* Sanqiao Yao,1 Yingzheng Zhao,1 Yuchun Li,1 Lei Wang,3 Xiangmei Zhao1

1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University, Xinxiang, Henan Province, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; 3Center for Musculoskeletal Surgery, Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität Zu Berlin and Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany

*These authors contributed equally to this work

Correspondence: Yongbin Wang
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University, Xinxiang 453000, Henan Province, People’s Republic of China
Tel +86 373 383 1646
Email [email protected]

Objective: The aim of this study is to apply the advanced error-trend-seasonal (ETS) framework to forecast the prevalence and mortality series of COVID-19 in the USA, the UK, Russia, and India, and the predictive performance of the ETS framework was compared with the most frequently used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.
Materials and Methods: The prevalence and mortality data of COVID-19 in the USA, the UK, Russia, and India between 20 February 2020 and 15 May 2020 were extracted from the WHO website. Then, the data subsamples between 20 February 2020 and 3 May 2020 were treated as the training horizon, and the others were used as the testing horizon to construct the ARIMA models and the ETS models.
Results: Based on the model evaluation criteria, the ARIMA (0,2,1) and ETS (M,MD,N), sparse coefficient ARIMA (0,2,(1,6)) and ETS (A,AD,M), ARIMA (1,1,1) and ETS (A,MD,A), together with ARIMA (2,2,1) and ETS (A,M,A) specifications were identified as the preferred ARIMA and ETS models for the prevalence data in the USA, the UK, Russia, and India, respectively; the ARIMA (0,2,1) and ETS (M,A,M), ARIMA (0,2,1) and ETS (M,A,N), ARIMA (0,2,1) and ETS (A,A,N), coupled with ARIMA (0,2,2) and ETS (M,M,N) specifications were selected as the optimal ARIMA and ETS models for the mortality data in these four countries, respectively. Among these best-fitting models, the ETS models produced smaller forecasting error rates than the ARIMA models in all the datasets.
Conclusion: The ETS framework can be used to nowcast and forecast the long-term temporal trends of the COVID-19 prevalence and mortality in the USA, the UK, Russia, and India, and which provides a notable performance improvement over the most frequently used ARIMA model. Our findings can aid governments as a reference to prepare for and respond to the COVID-19 pandemic both in restricting the transmission of the disease and in lowering the disease-related deaths in the upcoming days.

Keywords: coronavirus disease 2019, outbreak, ARIMA model, ETS model, epidemiological indicators, nowcasting

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