Effects of Ambient Temperature on Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Results from a Time-Series Analysis of 143318 Hospitalizations
Received 22 July 2019
Accepted for publication 30 December 2019
Published 29 January 2020 Volume 2020:15 Pages 213—223
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single anonymous peer review
Peer reviewer comments 3
Editor who approved publication: Prof. Dr. Chunxue Bai
Yongqiao Zhang,1 Xiaole Liu,1 Dehui Kong,1 Jia Fu,1 Yanbo Liu,1 Yakun Zhao,1 Hui Lian,1 Xiaoyi Zhao,2 Jun Yang,3 Zhongjie Fan1
1Department of Cardiology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; 3Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511443, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence: Zhongjie Fan
Department of Cardiology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
Tel +86 139 0119 9579
Email [email protected]
Purpose: To evaluate the associations between acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) hospitalizations and daily mean temperature (Tmean) as well as daily apparent temperature (AT), and to explore the practical values of these two indices in policymaking and patient education.
Methods: Daily AECOPD hospitalizations and Meteorological data in Beijing were obtained between 2013 and 2016. Distributed lag non-linear model was adopted to investigate the association between daily ambient temperature and AECOPD hospitalizations. The cumulative effects of cold/hot temperature were abstracted. For the extreme and moderate low-temperature effect estimates, we, respectively, computed the RR of AECOPD hospitalizations at the 1st and 10th percentiles of temperature in comparison with that at the 25th percentile of temperature. For the extreme and moderate high temperature effect estimates, we, respectively, computed the RR of AECOPD hospitalizations at the 99th and 90th percentiles of temperature in comparison with that at the 75th percentile of temperature.
Results: During the study period, 143, 318 AECOPD hospitalizations were collected. A reverse J-shape relationship was found between temperature and AECOPD hospitalizations. When comparing the effect of Tmean, higher RRs were associated with increases in AT on AECOPD hospitalizations but a lower value of Akaike’s Information Criterion for quasi-Poisson (Q-AIC). The RR of extremely low temperature of Tmean and AT were 1.55 (95% CI: 1.21,2.00) and 2.08 (95% CI: 1.44,3.01), respectively. Moderate low temperature also had an adverse impact on AECOPD hospitalizations. No associations were found between high temperature and AECOPD risk. We found the females and those aged < 65 years to be more susceptible to temperature change.
Conclusion: Lower temperature is associated with a higher risk for AECOPD hospitalizations. Ambient temperature is probably a better predictor in terms of quantifying risk than mean temperature when studying temperature impact on health.
Keywords: ambient temperature, distributed lag non-linear model, hospitalization
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