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Cardiovascular risk prediction: a comparative study of Framingham and quantum neural network based approach

Authors Narain R, Saxena S, Goyal AK

Received 10 March 2016

Accepted for publication 4 May 2016

Published 19 July 2016 Volume 2016:10 Pages 1259—1270

DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/PPA.S108203

Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single-blind

Peer reviewers approved by Dr Doris Leung

Peer reviewer comments 5

Editor who approved publication: Dr Johnny Chen

Renu Narain,1 Sanjai Saxena,1 Achal Kumar Goyal2

1Department of Biotechnology, Thapar University, Punjab, India; 2University Computer Center, Gurukul Kangri University, Haridwar, Uttarakhand, India


Purpose: Currently cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main cause of death worldwide. Disease risk estimates can be used as prognostic information and support for treating CVDs. The commonly used Framingham risk score (FRS) for CVD prediction is outdated for the modern population, so FRS may not be accurate enough. In this paper, a novel CVD prediction system based on machine learning is proposed.
Methods: This study has been conducted with the data of 689 patients showing symptoms of CVD. Furthermore, the dataset of 5,209 CVD patients of the famous Framingham study has been used for validation purposes. Each patient’s parameters have been analyzed by physicians in order to make a diagnosis. The proposed system uses the quantum neural network for machine learning. This system learns and recognizes the pattern of CVD. The proposed system has been experimentally evaluated and compared with FRS.
Results: During testing, patients’ data in combination with the doctors’ diagnosis (predictions) are used for evaluation and validation. The proposed system achieved 98.57% accuracy in predicting the CVD risk. The CVD risk predictions by the proposed system, using the dataset of the Framingham study, confirmed the potential risk of death, deaths which actually occurred and had been recorded as due to myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease in the dataset of the Framingham study. The accuracy of the proposed system is significantly higher than FRS and other existing approaches.
Conclusion: The proposed system will serve as an excellent tool for a medical practitioner in predicting the risk of CVD. This system will be serving as an aid to medical practitioners for planning better medication and treatment strategies. An early diagnosis may be effectively made by using this system. An overall accuracy of 98.57% has been achieved in predicting the risk level. The accuracy is considerably higher compared to the other existing approaches. Thus, this system must be used instead of the well-known FRS.

Keywords: myocardial infarction, atherosclerosis, Framingham risk score, cardiovascular disease

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