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A Powerful Nomogram Based on the Novel D-Index to Predict Prognosis After Surgical Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Authors Du X, Guo CN, Bao XD

Received 4 February 2021

Accepted for publication 5 March 2021

Published 17 March 2021 Volume 2021:13 Pages 2581—2594

DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/CMAR.S305253

Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single anonymous peer review

Peer reviewer comments 2

Editor who approved publication: Dr Seema Singh


Xia Du,1 Cheng-Nan Guo,2 Xiao-Dong Bao3

1Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 3Central Laboratory, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China

Correspondence: Xiao-Dong Bao
Central Laboratory, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, 325003, People’s Republic of China
Tel +86 1 881 500 0923
Email [email protected]

Purpose: Conventional staging and scoring systems such as the Tumor, Node, and Metastasis; Cancer of the Liver Italian Program; Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer; and Okuda have failed to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with resected primary hepatocellular carcinoma. Thus, we aimed to establish a novel D-index and nomogram to improve prognostic accuracy.
Patients and Methods: We selected 396 patients who underwent liver resection between January 2007 and February 2015 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University. These patients were randomly divided into the training and validation groups in a ratio of 7:3.
Results: We generated a nomogram using five independent risk factors, including the D-index (calculated by total bilirubin × tumor size/the ratio of fat-to-muscle area 0.5) in the training set. The predictive performance of the nomogram was similar in both the training and validation cohorts according to the concordance index. The nomogram demonstrated the strongest predictive power for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS, with the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve being 0.8486, 0.7785, and 0.752, respectively. The calibration curves exhibited stable capabilities in both cohorts. The stratification of the Kaplan-Meier curve was significant (P < 0.001).
Conclusion: The associated nomogram of the D-index demonstrated a powerful and accurate predictive ability for OS in patients with primary hepatocellular carcinoma.

Keywords: primary hepatocellular carcinoma, resection, D-index, nomogram, prognosis

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