A model combining TNM stage and tumor size shows utility in predicting recurrence among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after resection
Authors Zhang Y, Chen S, Liu L, Yang X, Cai S, Yun J
Received 25 May 2018
Accepted for publication 13 July 2018
Published 20 September 2018 Volume 2018:10 Pages 3707—3715
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single-blind
Peer reviewer comments 2
Editor who approved publication: Professor Nakshatri
Yu Zhang,1,2,* Shu-wei Chen,2,3,* Li-li Liu,1,2 Xia Yang,1,2 Shao-hang Cai,1,2 Jing-ping Yun1,2
1Department of Pathology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 2Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Objective: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence is a clinical challenge. An accurate prediction system for patients with HCC is needed, since the choice of HCC treatment strategies is very important.
Patients and methods: A total of 804 patients with HCC who underwent curative resection at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were included in this study. Demographics, clinicopathological data, and follow-up information were collected.
Results: A logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate the relationships between clinical features and HCC recurrence. Tumor size (OR=1.454, 95% CI: 1.047–2.020, P=0.026) and TNM stage (OR=1.360, 95% CI: 1.021–1.813, P=0.036) were independent predictors of HCC recurrence after curative resection. Therefore, the following equation was established to predict HCC recurrence: 0.308×TNM+0.374×tumor size–0.639. The equation score was 0.53±0.23 in patients who experienced HCC recurrence compared with 0.47±0.24 in other patients. A similar trend was observed in patients who survived after the last follow-up, compared with those who did not, with scores of 0.37±0.26 vs 0.52±0.22, respectively (P<0.001). The Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that patients with HCC with equation values >0.5 had significantly worse outcomes than those with equation values ≤0.5 (P<0.001) for overall survival (OS) and recurrence (P=0.043). Multivariate Cox analyses showed that tumor multiplicity (P=0.039), involucrum (P=0.029), vascular invasion (P<0.001), and equation value (P<0.001) were independent prognostic variables for OS, whereas tumor multiplicity (P=0.01), tumor differentiation (P=0.007), vascular invasion (P<0.001), involucrum (P=0.01), and equation value (P<0.001) were independent prognostic variables for HCC recurrence.
Conclusion: We established a novel and effective equation for predicting the probability of recurrence and OS after curative resection. Patients with a high recurrence score, based on this equation, should undergo additional high-end imaging examinations.
Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, recurrence, tumor size, TNM stage, equation
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